- A regional visit by Jared Kushner has raised hopes of a breakthrough on the rift, although he is more focused on the Israel normalisation push.
- The best outcome, still unlikely, is an easing of the airspace blockade by Saudi Arabia.
- For Saudi Arabia a resolution could help ease tensions with Biden and reunite the GCC in the face of the perceived threat from Iran.
- The core issue underlying the rift, Qatar’s relations with political Islam, remains very live and it is hard to see what Qatar could offer that would enable a face-saving climb down.
- Qatar has also been making progress in seeking legal redress on aspects of the embargo, embarrassing the Quartet and also providing some chips it could trade as part of a resolution.
- A resolution, if and when it finally comes, would facilitate GCC financial assistance for Oman, Bahrain and other needy states in the vicinity. It should also provide a welcome economic boost for Dubai.
Read the full report here.
