Latest Reports

How sustainable is debt in the GCC?

By Rory Fyfe | March 7, 2019

The GCC is issuing debt again, with Saudi Arabia raising $7.5bn in January and Qatar raising $12bn yesterday, with the largest order book ($50bn) of any debt issuance globally since it issued last year.

This raises the question, how long can the GCC go on issuing debt?

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The blockade is behind us, the future is LNG

By Rory Fyfe | December 10, 2018

Qatar has recovered from the blockade with key economic and market indicators all close to or even above pre-crisis levels. The focus is now on the LNG expansion which gets underway in the 2020s. We expect Qatar to record growth of 2.0% in 2018 driven by 5.0% growth in the non-hydrocarbon sector, with construction and manufacturing contributing the bulk of this growth. In 2019, the […]

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Cabinet reshuffle indicates growing confidence in Qatar

By Rory Fyfe | November 10, 2018

The cabinet was reshuffled on November 4th, in the first changes since 2016. The most notable changes involved drafting corporate executives into government, including two from Qatar National Bank, and one each from Qatar Rail and Qatar Petroleum. This should support reforms to improve government efficiency and enhance the business environment. The boards of QP and Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), whose membership is partly linked […]

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Our new model and the impact of higher foreign investment on Qatar

By Rory Fyfe | October 1, 2018

We have developed a detailed economic model for Qatar and also for the whole of the GCC that can answer questions such as the impact of different policies, higher foreign investment, soaring energy prices or rising global interest rates As Qatar opens up its economy to foreign investors in an effort to diversify, the critical question is: what will be the impact of higher foreign […]

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Qatar Weekly News Update

By Rory Fyfe | September 13, 2018

Freedom of movement is the subject of our In Focus article this week as Qatar continues to relax residency, entry and exit restrictions with a new permanent residency law, abolished exit visa requirements and easier tourist visas In other news, Qatar’s Emir was in Germany leading to pledges for large investments there in coming years, the QIA completed the acquisition of Rosneft, Qatargas signed a […]

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MENA Development, Escaping the Trap

By Rory Fyfe | August 16, 2018

The MENA region is at risk of falling into the middle-income trap with rising unemployment in some countries and a dependence on oil income in others To escape the trap, the region needs to raise productivity growth by encouraging technological development and continuing to focus on education The best way to achieve this is by encouraging private sector investment through deregulation, improved business environments, privatisation, […]

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Gulf states ease foreign investment restrictions

By Rory Fyfe | July 23, 2018

Gulf states are moving beyond the traditional 49%-ownership limit for foreign investors, as they look to diversify their economies in the face of a possible post-oil future. Foreign direct investment inflows to the region were just $15bn in 2017, a 13-year low, but are likely to increase in the coming years. Qatar, UAE and Oman all have new laws pending that permit 100% onshore foreign […]

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How will Qatar’s multi-billion dollar LNG expansion impact the economy?

By Rory Fyfe | July 10, 2018

Qatar, the world’s largest LNG producer, is expanding output by 30% at a cost of $30bn to $40bn The impact on GDP can be split into 2 phases, (i) the investment phase (up to 2024) when new jobs will drive aggregate demand in the non-hydrocarbon economy and (ii) the increase in hydrocarbon production in 2025-26 Combined with the Barzan gas project and a 2022 FIFA […]

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GCC growth to accelerate on higher oil prices, fiscal easing and rising oil production

By Rory Fyfe | July 2, 2018

GCC quarterly growth update Saudi Arabia: Growth firming in oil and non-oil sectors and likely to continue firming (we expect 2% growth in 2018) as higher oil prices lead to a loosening of fiscal policy and as oil production is set to rise UAE: PMIs point to stronger growth since April, especially in Dubai. We expect growth to strengthen further (1.8% in 2018) as central […]

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