Latest Reports

Global LNG market dynamics are strong in the long term, despite softer prices

By Rory Fyfe | April 25, 2019

The recent annual flagship reports for the LNG industry pointed to intensifying activity in the global market in 2018 with strong demand growth and rising prices This has supported a sharp increase in the number of new supply projects being approved in addition to the large supply increases already under construction Softer prices in 2019 raise the question: is the market likely to become oversupplied? […]

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Middle East Economics Webinar

By Rory Fyfe | April 15, 2019

Thank you to the Association of Corporate Treasurers for a well moderated and insightful panel discussion. Here is the link to the webinar. Have a listen from timestamp 12:30 A couple of our reports that are relevant to the discussion: How sustainable is debt in the GCC? The blockade is behind us, the future is LNG

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Aramco’s timing is impeccable but creditworthiness is inextricably tied to the State

By Rory Fyfe | April 9, 2019

Aramco is coming to the market at the perfect time, oil prices are at their highest levels since November last year and interest rates in the region are at their lowest for over a year. Demand for Aramco’s bonds has already broken records for EM issuance with orders of over $85bn. Aramco is expected to actually raise $10bn to $15bn. The issuance is to raise […]

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How sustainable is debt in the GCC?

By Rory Fyfe | March 7, 2019

The GCC is issuing debt again, with Saudi Arabia raising $7.5bn in January and Qatar raising $12bn yesterday, with the largest order book ($50bn) of any debt issuance globally since it issued last year.

This raises the question, how long can the GCC go on issuing debt?

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The blockade is behind us, the future is LNG

By Rory Fyfe | December 10, 2018

Qatar has recovered from the blockade with key economic and market indicators all close to or even above pre-crisis levels. The focus is now on the LNG expansion which gets underway in the 2020s. We expect Qatar to record growth of 2.0% in 2018 driven by 5.0% growth in the non-hydrocarbon sector, with construction and manufacturing contributing the bulk of this growth. In 2019, the […]

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Cabinet reshuffle indicates growing confidence in Qatar

By Rory Fyfe | November 10, 2018

The cabinet was reshuffled on November 4th, in the first changes since 2016. The most notable changes involved drafting corporate executives into government, including two from Qatar National Bank, and one each from Qatar Rail and Qatar Petroleum. This should support reforms to improve government efficiency and enhance the business environment. The boards of QP and Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), whose membership is partly linked […]

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Our new model and the impact of higher foreign investment on Qatar

By Rory Fyfe | October 1, 2018

We have developed a detailed economic model for Qatar and also for the whole of the GCC that can answer questions such as the impact of different policies, higher foreign investment, soaring energy prices or rising global interest rates As Qatar opens up its economy to foreign investors in an effort to diversify, the critical question is: what will be the impact of higher foreign […]

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Qatar Weekly News Update

By Rory Fyfe | September 13, 2018

Freedom of movement is the subject of our In Focus article this week as Qatar continues to relax residency, entry and exit restrictions with a new permanent residency law, abolished exit visa requirements and easier tourist visas In other news, Qatar’s Emir was in Germany leading to pledges for large investments there in coming years, the QIA completed the acquisition of Rosneft, Qatargas signed a […]

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MENA Development, Escaping the Trap

By Rory Fyfe | August 16, 2018

The MENA region is at risk of falling into the middle-income trap with rising unemployment in some countries and a dependence on oil income in others To escape the trap, the region needs to raise productivity growth by encouraging technological development and continuing to focus on education The best way to achieve this is by encouraging private sector investment through deregulation, improved business environments, privatisation, […]

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Gulf states ease foreign investment restrictions

By Rory Fyfe | July 23, 2018

Gulf states are moving beyond the traditional 49%-ownership limit for foreign investors, as they look to diversify their economies in the face of a possible post-oil future. Foreign direct investment inflows to the region were just $15bn in 2017, a 13-year low, but are likely to increase in the coming years. Qatar, UAE and Oman all have new laws pending that permit 100% onshore foreign […]

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