Oil prices topped out at around $94 per barrel this week as Saudi cuts have opened up an expected deficit of 3m barrels per day in the fourth quarter. The IEA and OPEC see the long term future of the oil market very differently with the IEA expecting global demand to fall in 2024 and to peak this decade, while OPEC expects ongoing increases in demand until 2040. Futures markets and consensus forecasts suggest prices will decline gradually from their current level.
Normalisation talks in early September in Riyadh included the US national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, and Palestinian officials. Hopes of some progress when Biden met Mohammed bin Salman at the G20 on 9th September appear to have been overblown with no further statements on the issue. Concessions on Palestinian land demands seem unlikely to get past the current far-right Israeli government and Saudi enrichment of uranium would likely be blocked by democrats in the US Congress. In this environment, Saudi normalisation with Israel is likely to be difficult.
Gambling in the UAE could soon be a reality after the creation of the federal Gaming Regulatory Authority. Major US gambling corporations are already present in the UAE, such as Caesars, which has a non-gambling resort in Dubai, and Wynn, which plans to open a $4bn project in Ras al-Khaimah in 2027. The federal authority appears to open the possibility of some emirates starting gambling operations, despite Islamic prohibitions, creating significant new business opportunities and revenue for the state.
