An Israeli ground invasion of Gaza remains the likely next step. It is likely to be more devastating than any previous invasion as Hamas will be fighting for its existence and Israel will be less restrained given the extent of the recent atrocities and the extremist bent of its current government. Is there any chance that Gulf countries could help de-escalate the situation?
Gulf diplomats are working hard to mediate and minimise the fallout. Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain are all receiving visits from the US Secretary of State and have engaged with all the key regional players at either the head of state or ministerial level.
Saudi’s Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman, told the Palestinian president that the kingdom would continue to stand by the Palestinian nation, further cementing the view that any normalisation between Saudi and Israel is off the table for now. The Crown Prince also spoke with the presidents of Turkey and Iran, the first call he has had with Ebrahim Raisi since their diplomatic relations were restored.
Qatar was Blinken’s first stop on his tour of the Gulf last week. The state has been the largest donor to Gaza in recent years, supporting humanitarian efforts and funding fuel, government salaries, family grants, infrastructure and reconstruction of homes. Qatar has also hosted Hamas’s political leadership since 2012 and this will make it a key channel for negotiations, particularly around hostage releases.
The outlook is bleak but the Gulf along with other key regional players do hold some hope of limiting the damage and fallout from this crisis.
