- Vaccine roll out is likely to be swift in the Gulf thanks to its buying power, government-run health sectors and vaccine deals that are already in place
- The news is positive for oil production although it will take time to impact demand for oil and inventories with prices only likely to gain material support in H2 next year
- Fiscal deficits in the Gulf will remain high, double-digits in Oman, Kuwait and sizable in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia
- The recovery for non-oil sectors will take time, particularly tourism and aviation in Qatar and Dubai while the recovery in Bahrain will be quicker as Saudi tourists receive vaccinations
- Bond yields dropped on the good news, particularly weaker credits Oman and Bahrain, but there is a risk of overshoot if issues with the vaccine rollout, country-specific risks and Fed hikes come in to play
Read the full report here.
