- Tamim has just landed and was greeted by MBS, confirming the reconcilliation is likely going ahead
- The driving force behind the reconcilliation is Qatar’s recent legal victories and the incoming Biden administration
- However, even with a full reconcilliation, intra-regional trade will not return to pre-blockade levels
- Qatar has created new trade routes and local production and is therefore unlikely to revert to previous trade networks with Saudi and the UAE as this would make it vulnerable to another blockade
- A post-covid return of Saudi tourists to Qatar would be a boost as they formerly accounted for half of total visitors and a higher share of spending, but still this would only likely add around 0.6% to real GDP
- A return of Qatari tourists to Dubai would help the UAE, but is unlikely until 2022 because of covid
- A reconcilliation is obviously great for regional harmony but the economic benefits are marginal
- The biggest beneficiary is probably Oman who would be more likely to get financial support if the GCC is reunited
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